How Many Voters Are Registered In Pennsylvania

Analysis

Voter registration update: PA GOP further narrows Dems' registration edge

If voting registration figures are a lagging indicator of partisan enthusiasm, then Republicans are heading into the country's primaries with a major head of steam.

People register to vote during a Republican voter registration in Brownsville, PA.

People register to vote during a Republican voter registration in Brownsville, PA. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images

By Nick Field

If voting registration figures are a lagging indicator of partisan enthusiasm, and I believe that they are, and then Republicans are heading into Pennsylvania's 2022 primaries with a major head of steam.

Information technology turns out that the reject in COVID-xix rates through the first months of the twelvemonth did not do much to improve President Joe Biden'southward approval rating, which has been stuck in the depression 40s since last fall.

In that time, Democrats' registration advantage took a hit. Last October, they held a statewide lead of 605,493; today it stands at just 553,827. To get a sense of where that stands historically, in May 2018, Democrats held an advantage of 815,317.

Four years ago, Pennsylvania had 4,042,928 Democrats and 3,227,611 Republicans amongst eight,460,068 total registered voters. Last week, Pennsylvania had 4,000,290 Democrats and 3,446,463 Republicans amidst 8,735,712 full registered voters.

To find out just where the GOP is making these gains, let's dive into the region by region numbers!

A quick notation: I explore our changing voter trends past tracking the gains one political party accumulated in registrations over the other political party. For instance, R+500 means that the Republican Party gained a internet 500 more registered voters in that canton than the Autonomous Political party did over this time menses, while D+500 indicates the opposite.

Central:

Blair: R+408

Bradford: R+306

Cameron: R+59

Centre: R+286

Clearfield: R+804

Clinton: R+256

Columbia: R+484

Elk: R+414

Huntingdon: R+201

Juniata: R+167

Lycoming: R+367

McKean: R+103

Mifflin: R+208

Montour: R+149

Northumberland: R+619

Potter: R+40

Snyder: R+90

Sullivan: R+86

Tioga: R+97

Marriage: R+104

Even in these relatively small-scale counties, the GOP continues to postal service consistently solid gains. Over my years of doing this, I've found Centre County to be a adept bellwether. If Democrats aren't adding voters there (the dwelling house of Penn State University), it tends to suggest they're in the midst of a troubling tendency.

Northeast:

Carbon: R+572

Lackawanna: R+1,594

Luzerne: R+ii,864

Monroe: R+884

Pike: R+258

Schuylkill: R+843

Susquehanna: R+221

Wayne: R+291

Wyoming: R+81

These are tough results for Scranton Joe, especially when his 2020 victory was aided past slight improvements in this region'south rural counties. Republican growth in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties, which slowed a scrap over the last few years, is now over again resembling its rapid 2015-2017 pace. Any statewide Republican victory volition crave an impressive performance in those 2 counties, as Donald Trump did back in 2016.

Northwest:

Clarion: R+187

Crawford: R+414

Erie: R+1,532

Forest: R+46

Jefferson: R+187

Mercer: R+978

Venango: R+266

Warren: R+280

The lakeside county of Erie is one of the commonwealth's most pivotal, as Pennsylvania's northwest corner has gone back and forth from old President Barack Obama to onetime President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden. Therefore, the above result is particularly concerning for the state's Democrats. Democratic Senate primary leader John Fetterman, a fervent laic in Erie's bellwether status, has already made multiple visits here and will definitely make more than should he win the nomination.

S Primal:

Adams: R+650

Bedford: R+356

Cumberland: R+409

Dauphin: R+554

Franklin: R+593

Fulton: D+8

Lancaster: R+681

Lebanon: R+329

Perry: R+232

York: R+1,695

Over the past few years, Pennsylvania Democrats have experienced some encouraging growth in this region, simply not so this year (also that peculiar result in Fulton County). Long-term, though, Dauphin and Cumberland counties remain promising spots for blue growth. Meanwhile York County, and to a perchance diminishing extent Lancaster Canton, remain powerhouses of Republican voters.

Southeast:

Berks: R+1,896

Bucks: R+2,212

Chester: R+123

Delaware: D+1,037

Lehigh: R+ane,085

Montgomery: D+722

Northampton: R+i,336

Philadelphia: R+vi,945

Even during terrible times, the collar counties of Delaware and Montgomery counties still saw Democratic gains. Other than that, still, these numbers are fantastic for Republicans, with key gains in Northampton, Lehigh, Berks and especially Bucks counties. For decades, Bucks has been a must-win county for any statewide Autonomous candidate and whatever long-term erosion there would be dangerous. Finally, those Philadelphia numbers are probably a effect of voter roll updates, although I'll exist keeping an eye out to see if the Democrats are hitting any kind of ceiling there.

Southwest:

Allegheny: R+3,928

Armstrong: R+314

Beaver: R+i,498

Butler: R+909

Cambria: R+1,595

Fayette: R+i,676

Greene: R+442

Indiana: R+418

Lawrence: R+905

Somerset: R+676

Washington: R+1,902

Westmoreland: R+3,328

Republicans accept been feverishly gaining ground in southwestern Pennsylvania for years, as Appalachian bequeathed Democrats continue to officially leave a party they stopped voting for long ago. Particularly impressive are the totals in Allegheny, Westmoreland, Washington, Fayette, Cambria and Beaver counties.

At this step, Fayette will flip from having a Democratic plurality of registrants to a Republican plurality past the end of this year. That would get out just Allegheny and Beaver as blueish counties in the southwest. In fact, it shouldn't take much longer for Beaver to flip as well and get out Allegheny as the lonely blue oasis amidst a ruby ocean.

Conclusions

Peradventure paradoxically, the political momentum in America tends to belong to the party out of power. Fear, anger and the hurting of losing fuel an opposition whose passion burns brighter than that of the victors.

In the first weeks afterwards January. vi, amongst reports of an exodus of Republicans from voter rolls beyond the nation, some Democrats dared to dream this cycle might be different. The political party fifty-fifty managed to brand some gains that spring. Alas, this moment would prove to be short-lived.

During the 2nd half of 2021, the Biden White Firm suffered a series of successive blows: the Delta variant sparking some other COVID moving ridge, the collapse of the Afghan government during the U.S. troop withdrawal, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, W-Va., killing the Build Back Better bill and spiraling economic inflation.

All the while, Pennsylvania Republicans were cut into the Democrats' aforementioned registration advantage. Now, with the primaries nearing and the two GOP statewide contests remaining competitive, information technology appears a healthy share of ancestral Democrats finally changed their status to vote in Tuesday's closed primaries.

Then are Republicans destined to sweep the Keystone Country contests in Nov? Well, despite how rosy the moving-picture show seems at this moment, there's plenty that can withal become wrong. For example, potential nominees like Doug Mastriano, Kathy Barnette and Mehmet Oz all have considerable vulnerabilities.

Remember that the last time the Pennsylvania GOP managed to win governor and U.S. Senate races they depended not just on the red wave of 2010, but likewise a pair of strong nominees in U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey and former Gov. Tom Corbett. Even with a favorable national surround, a poor pick of nominees could toll the GOP these races.

Yet, these are concerning numbers for Pennsylvania Democrats. The political party must find a way to selection upwardly the pace, especially in the vote-rich Southeast. Perhaps probable nominees Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman can indeed pull off victories in the face of strong national headwinds.

We're in a time of great uncertainty, just the beauty of elections is that nosotros'll know much more on Tuesday dark.

Contributor Nick Field covers southeastern Pennsylvania and its suburbs for the Capital-Star, where this story outset appeared. Follow him on Twitter @Nick_Field90 .